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Communications of the ACM


Moore's Law: What Comes Next?

futuristic microchip, illustration

Credit: Andrey Suslov

Computer designers are becoming increasingly concerned about the ending of Moore's Law, and what it means for users if the industry can no longer count on the idea that the density of logic circuits will double every two years, as it has for close to half a century. It may mean radical changes to the way users think about software.

Leading researchers in semiconductor design point out that, although logic density is butting up against physical limits, it does not necessarily spell the end of Moore's Law itself. Gordon Moore's speech at the 1975 International Electron Device Meeting (IEDM) predicted significant increases in chip size and improvements in circuit design as part of the scaling process, in addition to regular reductions in transistor size and interconnect spacing.


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